Japan's ruling party is set to elect a new leader on Friday, following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's announcement last month that he would not seek re-election.
The new chief of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has dominated Japanese politics for most of the post-war era, will automatically become prime minister due to the party's parliamentary majority. However, this election occurs amid significant turmoil for the LDP, marred by scandals and internal strife that have weakened its once-powerful factions.
Nine candidates are vying for leadership—the highest number in the LDP's history—with three frontrunners presenting distinctly different visions for Japan's future. Political veteran Shigeru Ishiba, 67, a former defense minister, is competing for the LDP leadership for the fifth time. His forthright criticism of Prime Minister Kishida has sparked tension within the party while resonating with the public.
Another popular candidate is 43-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi, the youngest contender, who represents a fresh face and promises reform within the LDP. Koizumi, the son of former "maverick" prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, appeals to younger voters and women, though critics question his experience.
Sanae Takaichi, 63, is also in the race, seeking to become the LDP’s—and Japan’s—first female leader. A close ally of the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi is one of two women competing for the leadership, but she leans toward more conservative positions.
Takaichi's views on women’s issues differ from those of Koizumi and Ishiba. Koizumi supports legislation allowing women to retain their maiden names, while Ishiba advocates for allowing female emperors—a contentious issue among LDP members and successive governments. In contrast, Takaichi opposes both proposals, citing a commitment to tradition.
The new leader will be chosen through an internal party vote rather than a public one. All frontrunners have pledged to reform the embattled LDP amid growing public dissatisfaction and declining approval ratings.
"In the upcoming presidential election, it's necessary to show the people that the Liberal Democratic Party will change," Kishida said at a press conference last month when announcing his decision not to run for another term.
The LDP leadership contest is not merely about selecting a new leader; it also aims to restore public trust that the party has lost in recent months due to a stagnant economy, struggling households, and various political scandals.
Among the major scandals are revelations about the influence of Japan's controversial Unification Church within the LDP and allegations that party factions underreported political funding over the years. The fallout from the political funding scandal led to the dissolution of five out of six LDP factions, which have traditionally provided crucial support in leadership elections.
More pressing for the Japanese public are the country's economic challenges. Following the Covid pandemic, many Japanese families are feeling the strain of a weak yen, stagnant economic growth, and soaring food prices, which have risen at the fastest rate in nearly half a century.
Data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) indicates that Japanese wages have barely changed in 30 years. This prolonged stagnation, coupled with 30-year-high inflation, is squeezing households and increasing calls for government intervention.
This situation is eroding the LDP's historically favorable position among voters. "People are tired of the LDP," said Mieko Nakabayashi, a former opposition MP and political science professor at Waseda University in Tokyo. "They’re frustrated with the inflation they are currently facing and the so-called 'lost 30 years.' The Japanese currency is weak, many imports have become expensive due to inflation, and people are feeling the impact."
Another critical issue is Japan’s ageing and shrinking population, which places strain on social and medical services and poses significant challenges for the future workforce. The new LDP leader will need to reconsider the country's labor market policies and potentially adjust attitudes towards immigration.
This recalibration is essential ahead of Japan's general election, scheduled for October 2025—or possibly sooner, as some candidates have suggested. Koizumi, for instance, has indicated he would call for a general election shortly after the LDP leadership contest.
The last two weeks of campaigning for the LDP leadership are viewed by experts as an audition for the general election. Consequently, candidates are presenting themselves to both party members and the public in a bid to win over the electorate.
“The public is changing,” remarked Kunihiko Miyake, a visiting professor at Ritsumeikan University in Kyoto who has worked closely with both Abe and Kishida. “It’s time for conservative politics in this country to adapt to a new political environment and battlefield.”
In addition to Ishiba, Koizumi, and Takaichi, other candidates include Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, 71; Digital Transformation Minister Taro Kono, 61; Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63; Toshimitsu Motegi, 68, the LDP's secretary-general; Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, a former economic security minister; and Katsunobu Kato, 68, a former chief cabinet secretary.
Four of the nine candidates have previously served as foreign ministers, while three have been defense ministers.
Results of the party leadership contest will be announced on Friday, the same day as the vote. A first round of voting will see LDP lawmakers casting 368 ballots, followed by another 368 votes representing the party's membership base of approximately 1.1 million. If no candidate secures a majority, a runoff will occur between the top two candidates, with the ultimate winner expected to be announced as prime minister by parliament in early October.
Candidates for the LDP election (from L-R): Sanae Takaichi, Takayuki Kobayashi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Shinjiro Koizumi, Yoko Kamikawa, Katsunobu Kato, Taro Kono, Shigeru Ishiba and Toshimitsu Motegi
